The Dispute over Taiwan — A Historical Insight
The sovereignty of Taiwan has been disputed for centuries, tracing back to the Dutch occupation of the region in the early 17th century. The People’s Republic of China (PRC), formed in 1949, regards Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China (ROC), as part of mainland territory. The rich history of China-Taiwan relations represents the division of a once homogenous culture into two distinct identities which are now at a crossroads. On one hand, China has a long-standing desire to merge Taiwan with the Mainland, while on the other, Taiwan is persistent in maintaining its own identity, unassociated with the Mainland.
Taiwan is an island nation separate from Mainland China, lying at a 100-mile distance off the Southeast coast of China and divided by the Taiwan Strait. However, despite China’s superior military capacity, unification with Taiwan has been problematic. As the dispute over the island nation drags on, it is essential to understand the history behind China’s claims over it, the role of the actors actively involved in addition to those historically prevalent, and the factors that have prevented and continue to undermine China’s pursuit of unification.
A Brief History
Early into the 17th century, in 1604, the Dutch appeared on the shores of the Penghu (or P’eng-hu) islands looking to trade with China, which was under the rule of the Ming Dynasty. However, officials of the Ming Dynasty had little interest in trading with the Dutch and desired their immediate evacuation from the Penghu Islands (an archipelago of islands in the Taiwan Strait), given its proximity to Fujian (China). After a show of military might against the Dutch, they complied.
With the beginning of their presence in Asia, the Dutch East India Company (VOC) clashed with the Portuguese, who had long traversed the region. Even so, their departure from the Penghu islands was relatively short-lived, having been embroiled in minor conflicts with the Portuguese over their land and colonies. A noteworthy instance is the ‘Siege of Mozambique’ in 1607 and 1608, which saw the VOC at odds with the Portuguese empire over the region. In both instances, the VOC failed to supersede Portuguese domination in Mozambique. However, the tensions between the Dutch and Portuguese empires culminated in the 1922 Battle of Macao, which the Dutch lost after suffering naval and on-land attacks.
Due to their defeat, the VOC returned to the Penghu islands but were once again forced off the region and moved to Southwestern Taiwan, where they established Fort Zeelandia; the establishment served as an administrative centre and trading hub. The Dutch exercised native grain production methods, setting up rice and sugar plantations which employed Chinese workers.
The following two years, in 1626, saw Spanish colonists being brought to Taiwan, setting up camp in the northern part of the island with Fort San Salvador. However, conflict ensued between the Dutch and Spanish colonists, leading to the latter being ousted in 1642. By 1644, the Ming Dynasty was superseded by the Qing Dynasty, which had been formed in 1936 by the Manchus (native to Manchuria).
The Dutch held control over Taiwan until they were invaded by Ming General Zheng Chenggong, also known as Koxinga, in 1662. The surrender of the Dutch established Koxinga and his family as the leaders of Taiwan, which was named the Kingdom of Tungning. The rule of the Koxinga family lasted for slightly over two decades (21 years) until 1683 when the Qing Dynasty formally took over the island after defeating the Kingdom of Tungning. This event is a significant point in the history of Taiwan and China, as it marked the first time Taiwan came under Chinese rule. The Ming Dynasty had never formally ruled over Taiwan.
In 1887, China (Fujian) formally recognized and integrated Taiwan as a province to fend off French and Japanese advances to colonize the island. Yet despite this integration, a large part of the Taiwanese population saw the Manchu regime (Qing) as any other colonial regime, one of which they did not actively support. This view is supported by the high number of rebellions that took place under the Qing Dynasty.
The rule of the Qing over Taiwan lasted a mere eight years until 1895. Their defeat in the first Sino-Japanese War between 1894 and 1895 led to the creation of the Treaty of Shimonoseki, which forced China to cede Taiwan to Japan. At this stage, it is imperative to reflect on the modern-day claims of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) over Taiwan. Despite having never officially ruled Taiwan since coming to power in 1949 and having only formally integrated Taiwan for less than a decade, their present-day claims of unification seem unfounded.
Yet, even Japanese rule over Taiwan was met with widespread rebellion. The rule of the Japanese regime lasted until the end of the Second World War in 1945 when it surrendered. The Chinese Civil War, ongoing intermittently since 1927, saw the Chinese Nationalist Party, or the Kuomintang (KMT), led by Chiang Kai-shek against the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) led by Mao Zedong. Soon after the end of the Second World War, Mao’s CCP emerged victorious in 1949, forcing Kai-shek’s KMT forces to retreat to the island across the strait—Taiwan.
What are the PRC’s motives?
Following the retreat of Kai-shek’s regime to the island, Mao and his regime sought to invade Taiwan and abolish the KMT regime once and for all. Their motives were foiled by the Korean War in 1950, shifting their focus to supporting the communist forces of North Korea against South Korea, which was backed by the United Nations (UN), the United States, and the allied countries.
Despite the unfortunate timing of the war on the Korean peninsula, the PRC’s motives had not changed. They still wished to wrestle back control over Taiwan but were now faced with the daunting prospect of US support to Taiwan. The support of the US boosted the morale of Kai-shek’s regime, which now desired to take over the Mainland from the PRC. Both regimes desired the existence of only one China, also known as the ‘One-China’ policy. While Kai-shek deemed it to be the ROC, Mao’s regime saw it purely as the PRC.
The PRC’s motives have undergone little change in the subsequent regime changes that have taken place since the days of the Cold War. Even today, under the rule of Xi Jinping, the PRC continues to look for ways to achieve reunification with Taiwan.
Attempts at Reunification
While the United States maintained its unofficial support for Taiwan, the PRC’s increasing strategic importance to the United States grew in the latter years of the Cold War, particularly after the Sino-Soviet split. An improvement in relations led the UN to pass a resolution which officially identified the PRC as the representative body of China at the UN, dislodging Taiwan’s international legitimacy.
A decrease in international support, at least publicly from the United States, saw the Taiwanese regime shift its focus to expanding its economic growth as a way of achieving international legitimacy. By the 1980s, Taiwan’s economy underwent industrialisation, leading to a boost in exports. As economic growth increased for both Taiwan and the Mainland PRC, both regimes loosened their barriers to facilitate trade relations.
However, the PRC saw the potential establishment of economic dependence as an alternative method of forcing reunification with Taiwan. This policy marked the start of a long-term policy to incite Taiwan through economic influence, making the two economies so tightly integrated that it would be catastrophic for either to pull out of economic ties. The application of this long-term policy further influenced China to drop its hostility toward Taiwan.
The Effect of China’s Reunification Policies
Despite growing economic ties, cultural divisions encouraged Taiwanese citizens, particularly the newer generation, to refrain from associating with the Mainland and its communist ideology. The Sunflower Movement of 2014, a student-led protest, took place against a proposed trade deal between Taiwan and the PRC, depicting youth opposition to closer economic ties with China and the desire for an independent, self-sufficient Taiwan. Political reforms in the 1980s in Taiwan led to the formation of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in 1986, the first opposition to the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT).
The DPP advocated for an independent Taiwan and saw its first President (the first Taiwanese-born President) in 1988 - Lee Teng-hui. These developments ignited a shift towards democratization and a growing distance from the values of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in the mainland. There was a growing desire for an independent identity. This is illustrated in Figure 1.0 below, which shows an increase in the percentage of those who identified as Taiwanese (59%) and an all-time low of those identifying as solely Chinese (3%).
Source: Taiwan Elections and Democratization Studies (Figure 1.0)
This desire was not well received by PRC leaders, who carried out missile tests in 1996 as a show of force to threaten Taiwan and warn it of the potential consequences of noncompliance.
Where does the dispute stand today?
Even today, China’s stance towards Taiwan remains unchanged. China’s agenda of “national rejuvenation” by 2049, which marks one century of the CCP, and cementing itself as a “moderately well-off society” follows Xi Jinping’s notion of the ‘Great Chinese Dream’. In reality, it has already cemented itself as a well-off society. However, Xi’s notion of “national rejuvenation” indicates eventual unification with Taiwan, following the idea of “One Country, Two Systems,” which intends to prevent Taiwanese independence and merge it with Mainland China.
Since the election of DPP leader Tsai Ing-wen in 2016, the PRC has continually intimidated Taiwan through various means to wear down its resistance to unification. These means include, but are not limited to, a wide range of cyber-attacks and encroachment on government data and information. It has also regularly conducted patrols as a display of might with the hopes of deriding the comparatively weaker military capabilities of Taiwan, despite an increase in budget spending on defence.
The PRC also continues to undermine Taiwan’s democracy such as in the 2020 Taiwanese elections, where the PRC spread misinformation and propaganda to boost support for the KMT candidate and weaken morale for DPP candidate Tsai Ing-wen. Even so, Ing-wen went on to win the election. Consequently, as per the Economist’s Democracy Index (2022), Taiwan was ranked the tenth most democratic state in the world and classified as a “full democracy.”
The Stance of the United States
Through the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, the United States outlined its policy towards Taiwan. It stated its acknowledgement of the PRC as the sole government of China with Taiwan regarded as a part of China. However, the United States’ acknowledgement does not denote its support of the status quo. Its policy is best regarded as “strategic ambiguity,” where it recognizes the PRC’s sovereignty of Taiwan, rejects forced unification, and maintains its ability to come to the support of Taiwan, even though it does not commit to doing so.
Importantly, the US administrations of Donald Trump and Joe Biden have adopted a firmer stance in the China-Taiwan dispute. President Biden has repeatedly affirmed that the United States would come to Taiwan’s defence if China were to launch an attack or invasion. In this process, he has effectively disregarded the policy of “strategic ambiguity.” Instead, Biden has adopted, as Richard Haas and David Sacks describe, a position of “strategic clarity.”
Taiwan is important for the United States due to its other alliances and partnerships in the region with the likes of the Philippines and Japan. A Chinese invasion would significantly jeopardise America’s foothold in Asia. As a result, it may be argued that “strategic clarity,” while contrary to the conditions put forth in the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), is a crucial step in helping Taiwan maintain the status quo and resist Chinese unification.
On a larger front, Taiwan holds international prominence due to its large production of semiconductor chips through the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). It was one of the few companies in the world with the technological capability and capacity to produce these chips, manufacturing up to 90% of them. Analysts and scholars argue the United States’ dependence on semiconductor chips has led to increased support for Taiwan.
The Path Ahead
Currently, the stance of all actors involved in the crisis remains largely unchanged. China and the PRC remain fixated on unification with a resistant Taiwan. At the same time, the United States continues to play the role of a deterrent, preventing the former from pursuing the latter.
Various international relations scholars and China analysts have argued that the possibility of a Chinese invasion remains slim. As it stands, the status quo remains relatively unaffected. However, there remains ambiguity over increasing Chinese impatience towards Taiwan and the United States’ commitment to intervention in case of an invasion, despite the affirmative approach adopted by the past and current US administrations.
Only time will determine the path the China-Taiwan conflict takes, given the nature of its historical complexities and the motives of the actors involved. The development of the conflict will be key in shaping not only East Asian politics but also regional and potentially global hegemony in the time to come.
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